According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on March 4, 2023, China's lithium-ion battery (hereinafter referred to as "lithium battery") industry continued growth trend, according to the lithium battery industry specification announcement enterprise information and industry association estimates, the national lithium battery total output of more than 940GWh, an increase of 25%, the total industry output value of more than 1.4 trillion yuan.
In the battery sector, the output of consumer, power and energy storage lithium batteries from January to December was 80GWh, 675GWh and 185GWh, respectively, and the installed capacity of lithium batteries (including new energy vehicles and new energy storage) exceeded 435GWh. Export trade continued to grow, from January to December, the total export of lithium batteries in the country reached 457.4 billion yuan, an increase of more than 33%.
The first-stage material link, from January to December, the output of positive material, negative material, diaphragm and electrolyte reached 2.3 million tons, 1.65 million tons, 15 billion square meters, and 1 million tons, respectively, with an increase of more than 15%.
In the second-order material sector, the output of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from January to December was about 463,000 tons and 285,000 tons, respectively, and the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium hydroxide (micro-powder grade) was 258,000 yuan/ton and 273,000 yuan/ton, respectively.
Throughout the year, the price of lithium battery industry products declined significantly, and the price of battery cell and battery grade lithium salt fell by more than 50% and 70% respectively from January to December.
According to the research of the industry Institute of High-tech Industry (GGII), overall, after experiencing rapid growth from 2020 to 2022, the lithium battery industry chain showed signs of slowing growth in 2023. The market weakness is mainly reflected in three key aspects: a significant decrease in the number of new tenders, a low completion rate of corporate targets, and a significant decline in product prices.
According to GGII's research data, the amount of bidding for lithium battery industry chain in 2023 has been reduced by nearly half compared with 2022. Most companies failed to achieve the goals they set at the beginning of the year, and only a few were able to meet more than 60 percent of the intended targets, while the majority achieved between 40 and 55 percent. Some third-tier and below enterprises are beginning to face business difficulties due to overcapacity, lack of customers and cost disadvantages.
In 2024, China's lithium battery market will enter the TWh era officially.
According to GGII, overall, China's lithium battery market shipments will exceed 1100GWh in 2024, an increase of 27% year-on-year, officially entering the TWh era. Among them, power battery shipments will exceed 820GWh, an increase of 20%. Storage battery shipments will exceed 200GWh, an increase of 25% year-on-year.
In terms of materials
Shipments of the four major materials in China's lithium battery industry are expected to achieve more than 20% year-on-year growth in 2024. Shipments of positive electrode materials will exceed 3 million tons, shipments of lithium membranes will exceed 22 billion square meters, shipments of negative electrode materials will exceed 2 million tons, and shipments of electrolytes will exceed 1.3 million tons.
01
In terms of product prices
It is expected that the price of the main link of the lithium battery industry chain in 2024 will be reduced by 5-15% on the basis of 2023. Among them, the negative electrode and electrolyte are reduced by 5-12%, and the positive electrode and diaphragm are reduced by 8-15%. In addition to materials, the price of lithium production equipment and related parts in 2024 will also continue to decline on the basis of 2023. The decline in raw materials and parts prices has driven the cost of batteries to fall by 5 to 10%, and the cost of lithium batteries will fall by 0.03-0.06 yuan / Wh on the existing basis.
02
In terms of capacity utilization
It is expected that in 2024, China's lithium battery industry chain will face severe challenges in capacity utilization, and the utilization rate of effective capacity is expected to be less than 60%, especially in the power battery market. In addition, the effective capacity utilization rate of the energy storage battery market will also be less than 50%. This phenomenon is partly due to the fact that the capacity released by new enterprises fails to achieve the expected effect, resulting in a large amount of capacity becoming ineffective or inefficient capacity.
03
In terms of product innovation
It is expected that in 2024, fast-charging lithium batteries will achieve a double breakthrough of "quantity + quality", and the product ratio performance will move from 1.3-1.7C to 1.7-2.5C. At present, more than 10 power battery companies in China have laid out fast charge technology. It is expected that the average ratio performance of the domestic power battery market will exceed 1.7C in 2024, and gradually move towards 1.7-2.5C.
04
2023 is a year for domestic lithium battery industry chain enterprises to go overseas, more than 20 companies in Southeast Asia, Africa, Eastern Europe and South America and other regions to investigate, but the real landing of enterprises is very few. It is expected that 2024 will become the "landing year" of overseas concentration of domestic lithium battery industry chain enterprises, of which Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and South America will become the main areas of project landing.
